Issue No. 2 of Top Ten of 2018
2018 proved a banner year for far-right populist movements in Europe and the Americas: They claimed the presidency of Brazil, sparked the collapse of the Belgian government, and—whether in or out of office—put a harder-edged stamp on migration and asylum policies in Austria, Denmark, Hungary, Italy, Sweden, and beyond.
Issue No. 2 of Top Ten of 2018 |
And in the United States, which lacks a formal populist party but is led by a President who has embraced a range of nationalist positions, the government moved during 2018 to further harden U.S. borders, restrict humanitarian admissions, and slow legal immigration. (For more, see Issue #3: Shaping a Narrative of "Crisis" at Border, Trump Administration Takes Muscular Action.)
Donald Trump campaign rally in Phoenix, Arizona in 2018. (Photo: Gage Skidmore)
Controversy Surrounding the Global Compact for Migration
Populist sentiments flared in the lead-up to the December endorsement of the Global Compact for Safe, Orderly, and Regular Migration (for more, see Issue #8: A Once-Smooth Path for the Global Compact on Migration Becomes Rocky), with critics arguing it represented a back-door effort to trample on national sovereignty in migration management. Ultimately, however, just five of the 193 UN Member States voted against the nonbinding compact (the Czech Republic, Hungary, Israel, Poland, and the United States), with 12 abstentions. Still, at the outset of the pact’s negotiations, its proponents undoubtedly never would have predicted that thousands would protest it outside EU headquarters, with police ultimately turning water cannons and tear gas on the crowd assembled by Flemish right-wing parties.
Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán at European People’s Party Congress in 2018. (Photo: European People’s Party)
Immigration Drives a Political Wedge
The year offered a number of further demonstrations of the powerful tool immigration has become for far-right populists seeking to build support among anxious publics. It also showed that these politicians, whether in or out of government, were able to push center-right opponents to harder lines on migration and destabilize mainstream coalitions:
Even in Canada, which has long exhibited strong public support for welcoming immigration policies, nationalist sentiments were visible as Conservative leader Andrew Scheer called on Prime Minister Justin Trudeau not to sign the Global Compact for Migration, saying it would permit “foreign entities” to have a hand in managing Canada’s immigration system.
Advances, But Brakes as Well
As immigration policies have hardened in this new political reality—including a greater focus on returning failed asylum seekers and other unwanted migrants, the narrowing of asylum pathways (see Issue #7: Asylum Hangover? Governments Seek to Narrow Avenues for Humanitarian Protection), and the closure of Italian and Maltese ports to NGO ships rescuing migrants in the Mediterranean—the courts are in some cases serving as a brake. In the United States, for example, the Trump administration has faced a number of setbacks in the court system, including judicial orders to stop separating migrant families and to stand down from efforts to withhold asylum from those crossing the U.S.-Mexico border illegally.
While globalization, increased automation, shifting labor markets, economic inequality, and other factors play key roles in real and perceived societal fragmentation, a focus on immigration offers a simple, powerful message. Populists, according to one study, have more than tripled their support in Europe over the past 20 years. These gains have occurred particularly among those parties on the far right of the spectrum, which have mobilized effectively to tap into public anxieties over the major spike in the numbers of asylum seekers and migrants Europe received during 2015 and 2016—and have prolonged the impression of crisis even as these numbers have subsided.
Amid continued public skepticism about governments’ willingness or ability to manage migration; round-the-clock media coverage of spontaneous migration from Africa, Central America, and beyond; and continued political messaging of immigration as a threat, it’s likely that far-right populist parties will continue to shape immigration debates—and policy—ahead in 2019.