The Deferred Action for Childhood Arrivals (DACA) program has received yet another blow to its survival, with a federal court again ruling that the executive branch exceeded its authority in creating the program. But with litigation likely to continue for years, it is attrition that is actively reducing the reach of a program closed to new entrants by prior court orders.
While declaring the DACA program illegal on Wednesday, U.S. District Judge Andrew Hanen ruled that current recipients can keep their protections and continue to renew them as the case once again wends its way through the judicial system.
There were 579,000 active DACA holders as of March 31, the latest data available from the government. That number is down from the program’s peak of just over 700,000 participants. And with court orders keeping DACA closed to new entrants, the population is expected to decline over time.
Current DACA participants represent about half of the 1.2 million noncitizens who the Migration Policy Institute (MPI) estimates met the program’s age, age at U.S. entry, years of U.S. residence, and educational requirements for immediate eligibility in 2022 under the original rules. Among this group, MPI estimates 58,000 youth aged into DACA eligibility since the Trump administration attempted to end the program in September 2017, but have mostly been barred from access.
A New Adverse Ruling
In the face of legal challenges to DACA’s future, the Biden administration last year finalized a federal regulation that sought to bolster a program originally established by a 2012 memo from the Homeland Security secretary. Hanen ruled that the Obama-era program exceeded executive authority, whether established through a formal regulatory process or not.
The Hanen decision will almost surely be appealed to the Fifth U.S. Circuit Court of Appeals and eventually the Supreme Court, in a process that could take years to complete. In a prior round of rulings, the Fifth Circuit allowed DACA to operate during ongoing litigation, so the program is likely to remain on life support for the immediate future, pending unlikely intervention from Congress.
A Program Frozen in Place, Protecting a Shrinking Group
Following the Trump administration’s decision to terminate the program, DACA has been ensnared in litigation, locking out new entrants. Only those immigrants who had DACA prior to the September 2017 termination date have been able to renew their protections under the court orders keeping the program alive. With no new applications allowed (except for one brief window created by a court order that benefited very few), and eligibility criteria locked in place, the number of individuals with DACA has been on an overall downward trend since 2018 (see Figure 1). Should a final court ruling terminate the program, just under 800 DACA holders would likely lose their work authorization and protection from deportation every day over the subsequent two years, depending on how the program is ended.
While the high renewal rate over the program’s life offers proof of its value to recipients, notwithstanding the need to renew every two years and pay $495 for application and biometric fees, the falling participation rate is due to several factors. Some recipients may have found a path to adjust to legal permanent resident status; others left the country, fell out of status, lost eligibility, or died. Yet others may have decided not to renew, given the uncertainty of the future of the program, or due to fears of providing a current address to the government.
Figure 1. Total DACA Recipients, September 2017-March 2023
Sources: U.S. Citizenship and Immigration Services (USCIS), “Count of Active DACA Recipients,” various dates, available online.
Program Participation Rates
More than 800,000 people have had DACA at one time or another since the program’s creation in 2012. MPI’s estimates that about 1.2 million individuals met all the criteria to apply suggest that as many as two-thirds of all those who were eligible have participated at some point over the life of the program.
DACA enrollment varies by gender, age, and country of origin. Women participate at higher rates than men, with 59 percent of DACA-eligible women enrolled, compared to 42 percent of DACA-eligible men. DACA participation was highest among those ages 26 to 30, while enrollment was lower among older populations. Those ages 16-20 had the lowest participation rate (7 percent) because many were locked out of the program by the time they aged into eligibility (see Figure 2).
Figure 2. DACA Participation Rate by Age Group, March 2023
Sources: Migration Policy Institute (MPI) analysis of 2019 American Community Survey (ACS) and 2008 Survey of Income and Program Participation (SIPP) data from the U.S. Census Bureau, drawing on a methodology developed in consultation with James Bachmeier of Temple University and Jennifer Van Hook of The Pennsylvania State University, Population Research Institute; USCIS, “Count of Active DACA Recipients," updated July 28, 2023.
DACA participation also varied by country of origin. Among the top ten countries of origin for current DACA recipients, the participation rate was highest for those from Mexico (63 percent) and lowest for those from South Korea (16 percent). Theories about why some Asian groups have had lower participation rates than Latino groups include discussions of greater stigma and shame about legal status in some Asian communities, less outreach about and knowledge of DACA outside of Spanish-speaking communities, fear of exposing family members to immigration consequences, and difficulties accessing Korean passports for Korean men who did not complete their mandatory military service.
Characteristics of Current DACA Holders
Despite downward trends in enrollment, the breakdowns in recipients’ countries of origin, gender, and state and metro area of residence have remained similar since U.S. Citizenship and Immigration Services (USCIS) began publishing data on DACA holders’ characteristics in 2017, even as the DACA population has aged.
Countries of Origin
Mexico continues to be the top country of origin. In March 2023, about 81 percent (468,000) of DACA recipients were from Mexico. El Salvador, Guatemala, Honduras, and Peru rounded out the top five countries of origin.
Table 1. Top 10 Countries of Origin of DACA Holders, March 2023
Source: USCIS, “Count of Active DACA Recipients by Country of Birth, as of March 31, 2023," available online.
Age of Current DACA Recipients
Per DACA eligibility requirements, would-be applicants must be at least age 15 to apply and have been age 30 or younger as of June 2012. Over 11 years after the program’s creation, this means that the maximum age to qualify is now 42. And because applicants must have entered the United States before 2007, which was 16 years ago, the youngest eligible people are now 16 years old. But relatively few teens have DACA given that those who aged into eligibility over the past five years have mostly been locked out of the program.
As of March, just under two-thirds of DACA holders were between the ages of 21 and 30, while just 1 percent were under age 21 (see Figure 3).
Figure 3. Age Range of Current DACA Holders, March 2023
Source: USCIS, “Count of Active DACA Recipients by Month of Current DACA Expiration as of March 31, 2023."
As DACA holders have aged and new applicants have mostly been locked out, the average age of current recipients increased from 23.8 years in September 2017 to 29.2 years in March.
Places of Residence
DACA recipients live throughout the United States but are concentrated in traditional immigrant destination states. Since 2017, the top five states have been unchanged: California, Texas, Illinois, New York, and Florida. California and Texas combined accounted for 45 percent of all recipients (see Table 2).
Table 2. Top 10 States of Residence for DACA Holders, March 2023
Source: USCIS, “Count of Active DACA Recipients by Month of Current DACA Expiration as of March 31, 2023." Percentages do not add to 100 percent due to rounding.
At the local level, the biggest concentration of DACA holders is in the Los Angeles metropolitan area, where more than one of every ten program participants lives (see Table 3). And the metro areas of New York, Dallas, Houston, and Chicago each have about 30,000 or more DACA participants.
Table 3. Top Ten Metro Areas of Residence of DACA Holders, March 2023
Source: USCIS, “Count of Active DACA Recipients by Month of Current DACA Expiration as of March 31, 2023." Percentages do not add to 100 percent due to rounding.
An Integration Success Story
DACA has brought tremendous benefits to the more than 800,000 people who have ever held its status, as well as their communities. Its renewable, two-year protection from removal and access to work authorization have permitted recipients to find formal jobs that make use of their U.S. education, training, and English proficiency. As a result, research shows that DACA has opened doors to higher education, better and higher-paying jobs, greater access to home ownership, and improved mental health. In turn, DACA holders held essential jobs during the COVID-19 pandemic, make greater tax contributions, and more broadly, are able to contribute more completely to their communities.
State policies also have ushered in new opportunities for DACA holders. Some states opened in-state tuition and/or state financial aid specifically to DACA holders or made them eligible for the professional licenses required for certain occupations. Therefore, if the program is eventually terminated, the effects will be felt even more strongly among DACA holders residing in states where prior immigration status restrictions will once again block their access to these and other benefits.
The Uncertain Road Ahead
Though DACA represents the broadest effort implemented to provide lawful status to unauthorized immigrants since the Immigration Reform and Control Act of 1986, it has been a limited program from the start, serving a narrow slice of all unauthorized immigrants in the country. Its protections, however helpful, have been granted just two years at a time, creating an ongoing sense of uncertainty. Indeed, DACA was never meant to be a permanent solution, rather a bridge to legislative action that would provide more durable protections for Dreamers.
Because of DACA’s strict eligibility criteria, most unauthorized immigrant youth are now entering adulthood without the program’s protections. MPI estimates 179,000 unauthorized immigrant children under age 18 as well as 329,000 youth ages 18-23 entered the country too late to be eligible for DACA.
With DACA on life support, its holders remain able to work legally, live without immediate fear of removal, and take advantage of all of the opportunities that the program opens in two-year increments. But the groups excluded because of program limits and court orders—including most who aged into eligibility over the past five years—will remain locked out.
If a final ruling terminates DACA in the future, the Biden administration is expected to make another attempt at executive action to protect current and former DACA holders. It could direct U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) not to consider former DACA holders as priorities for arrest and removal, or it could attempt to grant Deferred Enforced Departure or a different form of deferred action to DACA recipients. Such moves could well be challenged in court. A narrower option that grants DACA holders protection from deportation but not work authorization might fare better in the courts but would not allow recipients to participate fully in the labor market or have the ability to more completely integrate into their communities.
A decade of research has demonstrated the benefits DACA brings to recipients, their families and communities, and the U.S. economy. Pressure again falls on Congress, which has debated relief for Dreamers since 2001 without ever accomplishing it, to seriously consider offering durable protections for unauthorized immigrants who arrived as children—as only it can.
Despite majorities of Americans across the political spectrum supportive of protections for Dreamers, it is likely that congressional gridlock will continue as next year’s elections loom. Meanwhile, as litigation proceeds, the population protected by DACA will continue to shrink, and the number of youth aging into adulthood without its protections will continue to grow.
The authors thank MPI colleagues Colleen Putzel-Kavanaugh and Kathleen Bush-Joseph for their research assistance.
A Shrinking Number of DACA Participants Face Yet Another Adverse Court Ruling
The Deferred Action for Childhood Arrivals (DACA) program has received yet another blow to its survival, with a federal court again ruling that the executive branch exceeded its authority in creating the program. But with litigation likely to continue for years, it is attrition that is actively reducing the reach of a program closed to new entrants by prior court orders.
While declaring the DACA program illegal on Wednesday, U.S. District Judge Andrew Hanen ruled that current recipients can keep their protections and continue to renew them as the case once again wends its way through the judicial system.
There were 579,000 active DACA holders as of March 31, the latest data available from the government. That number is down from the program’s peak of just over 700,000 participants. And with court orders keeping DACA closed to new entrants, the population is expected to decline over time.
Current DACA participants represent about half of the 1.2 million noncitizens who the Migration Policy Institute (MPI) estimates met the program’s age, age at U.S. entry, years of U.S. residence, and educational requirements for immediate eligibility in 2022 under the original rules. Among this group, MPI estimates 58,000 youth aged into DACA eligibility since the Trump administration attempted to end the program in September 2017, but have mostly been barred from access.
A New Adverse Ruling
In the face of legal challenges to DACA’s future, the Biden administration last year finalized a federal regulation that sought to bolster a program originally established by a 2012 memo from the Homeland Security secretary. Hanen ruled that the Obama-era program exceeded executive authority, whether established through a formal regulatory process or not.
The Hanen decision will almost surely be appealed to the Fifth U.S. Circuit Court of Appeals and eventually the Supreme Court, in a process that could take years to complete. In a prior round of rulings, the Fifth Circuit allowed DACA to operate during ongoing litigation, so the program is likely to remain on life support for the immediate future, pending unlikely intervention from Congress.
A Program Frozen in Place, Protecting a Shrinking Group
Following the Trump administration’s decision to terminate the program, DACA has been ensnared in litigation, locking out new entrants. Only those immigrants who had DACA prior to the September 2017 termination date have been able to renew their protections under the court orders keeping the program alive. With no new applications allowed (except for one brief window created by a court order that benefited very few), and eligibility criteria locked in place, the number of individuals with DACA has been on an overall downward trend since 2018 (see Figure 1). Should a final court ruling terminate the program, just under 800 DACA holders would likely lose their work authorization and protection from deportation every day over the subsequent two years, depending on how the program is ended.
While the high renewal rate over the program’s life offers proof of its value to recipients, notwithstanding the need to renew every two years and pay $495 for application and biometric fees, the falling participation rate is due to several factors. Some recipients may have found a path to adjust to legal permanent resident status; others left the country, fell out of status, lost eligibility, or died. Yet others may have decided not to renew, given the uncertainty of the future of the program, or due to fears of providing a current address to the government.
Figure 1. Total DACA Recipients, September 2017-March 2023
Sources: U.S. Citizenship and Immigration Services (USCIS), “Count of Active DACA Recipients,” various dates, available online.
Program Participation Rates
More than 800,000 people have had DACA at one time or another since the program’s creation in 2012. MPI’s estimates that about 1.2 million individuals met all the criteria to apply suggest that as many as two-thirds of all those who were eligible have participated at some point over the life of the program.
DACA enrollment varies by gender, age, and country of origin. Women participate at higher rates than men, with 59 percent of DACA-eligible women enrolled, compared to 42 percent of DACA-eligible men. DACA participation was highest among those ages 26 to 30, while enrollment was lower among older populations. Those ages 16-20 had the lowest participation rate (7 percent) because many were locked out of the program by the time they aged into eligibility (see Figure 2).
Figure 2. DACA Participation Rate by Age Group, March 2023
Sources: Migration Policy Institute (MPI) analysis of 2019 American Community Survey (ACS) and 2008 Survey of Income and Program Participation (SIPP) data from the U.S. Census Bureau, drawing on a methodology developed in consultation with James Bachmeier of Temple University and Jennifer Van Hook of The Pennsylvania State University, Population Research Institute; USCIS, “Count of Active DACA Recipients," updated July 28, 2023.
DACA participation also varied by country of origin. Among the top ten countries of origin for current DACA recipients, the participation rate was highest for those from Mexico (63 percent) and lowest for those from South Korea (16 percent). Theories about why some Asian groups have had lower participation rates than Latino groups include discussions of greater stigma and shame about legal status in some Asian communities, less outreach about and knowledge of DACA outside of Spanish-speaking communities, fear of exposing family members to immigration consequences, and difficulties accessing Korean passports for Korean men who did not complete their mandatory military service.
Characteristics of Current DACA Holders
Despite downward trends in enrollment, the breakdowns in recipients’ countries of origin, gender, and state and metro area of residence have remained similar since U.S. Citizenship and Immigration Services (USCIS) began publishing data on DACA holders’ characteristics in 2017, even as the DACA population has aged.
Countries of Origin
Mexico continues to be the top country of origin. In March 2023, about 81 percent (468,000) of DACA recipients were from Mexico. El Salvador, Guatemala, Honduras, and Peru rounded out the top five countries of origin.
Table 1. Top 10 Countries of Origin of DACA Holders, March 2023
Source: USCIS, “Count of Active DACA Recipients by Country of Birth, as of March 31, 2023," available online.
Age of Current DACA Recipients
Per DACA eligibility requirements, would-be applicants must be at least age 15 to apply and have been age 30 or younger as of June 2012. Over 11 years after the program’s creation, this means that the maximum age to qualify is now 42. And because applicants must have entered the United States before 2007, which was 16 years ago, the youngest eligible people are now 16 years old. But relatively few teens have DACA given that those who aged into eligibility over the past five years have mostly been locked out of the program.
As of March, just under two-thirds of DACA holders were between the ages of 21 and 30, while just 1 percent were under age 21 (see Figure 3).
Figure 3. Age Range of Current DACA Holders, March 2023
Source: USCIS, “Count of Active DACA Recipients by Month of Current DACA Expiration as of March 31, 2023."
As DACA holders have aged and new applicants have mostly been locked out, the average age of current recipients increased from 23.8 years in September 2017 to 29.2 years in March.
Places of Residence
DACA recipients live throughout the United States but are concentrated in traditional immigrant destination states. Since 2017, the top five states have been unchanged: California, Texas, Illinois, New York, and Florida. California and Texas combined accounted for 45 percent of all recipients (see Table 2).
Table 2. Top 10 States of Residence for DACA Holders, March 2023
Source: USCIS, “Count of Active DACA Recipients by Month of Current DACA Expiration as of March 31, 2023." Percentages do not add to 100 percent due to rounding.
At the local level, the biggest concentration of DACA holders is in the Los Angeles metropolitan area, where more than one of every ten program participants lives (see Table 3). And the metro areas of New York, Dallas, Houston, and Chicago each have about 30,000 or more DACA participants.
Table 3. Top Ten Metro Areas of Residence of DACA Holders, March 2023
Source: USCIS, “Count of Active DACA Recipients by Month of Current DACA Expiration as of March 31, 2023." Percentages do not add to 100 percent due to rounding.
An Integration Success Story
DACA has brought tremendous benefits to the more than 800,000 people who have ever held its status, as well as their communities. Its renewable, two-year protection from removal and access to work authorization have permitted recipients to find formal jobs that make use of their U.S. education, training, and English proficiency. As a result, research shows that DACA has opened doors to higher education, better and higher-paying jobs, greater access to home ownership, and improved mental health. In turn, DACA holders held essential jobs during the COVID-19 pandemic, make greater tax contributions, and more broadly, are able to contribute more completely to their communities.
State policies also have ushered in new opportunities for DACA holders. Some states opened in-state tuition and/or state financial aid specifically to DACA holders or made them eligible for the professional licenses required for certain occupations. Therefore, if the program is eventually terminated, the effects will be felt even more strongly among DACA holders residing in states where prior immigration status restrictions will once again block their access to these and other benefits.
The Uncertain Road Ahead
Though DACA represents the broadest effort implemented to provide lawful status to unauthorized immigrants since the Immigration Reform and Control Act of 1986, it has been a limited program from the start, serving a narrow slice of all unauthorized immigrants in the country. Its protections, however helpful, have been granted just two years at a time, creating an ongoing sense of uncertainty. Indeed, DACA was never meant to be a permanent solution, rather a bridge to legislative action that would provide more durable protections for Dreamers.
Because of DACA’s strict eligibility criteria, most unauthorized immigrant youth are now entering adulthood without the program’s protections. MPI estimates 179,000 unauthorized immigrant children under age 18 as well as 329,000 youth ages 18-23 entered the country too late to be eligible for DACA.
With DACA on life support, its holders remain able to work legally, live without immediate fear of removal, and take advantage of all of the opportunities that the program opens in two-year increments. But the groups excluded because of program limits and court orders—including most who aged into eligibility over the past five years—will remain locked out.
If a final ruling terminates DACA in the future, the Biden administration is expected to make another attempt at executive action to protect current and former DACA holders. It could direct U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) not to consider former DACA holders as priorities for arrest and removal, or it could attempt to grant Deferred Enforced Departure or a different form of deferred action to DACA recipients. Such moves could well be challenged in court. A narrower option that grants DACA holders protection from deportation but not work authorization might fare better in the courts but would not allow recipients to participate fully in the labor market or have the ability to more completely integrate into their communities.
A decade of research has demonstrated the benefits DACA brings to recipients, their families and communities, and the U.S. economy. Pressure again falls on Congress, which has debated relief for Dreamers since 2001 without ever accomplishing it, to seriously consider offering durable protections for unauthorized immigrants who arrived as children—as only it can.
Despite majorities of Americans across the political spectrum supportive of protections for Dreamers, it is likely that congressional gridlock will continue as next year’s elections loom. Meanwhile, as litigation proceeds, the population protected by DACA will continue to shrink, and the number of youth aging into adulthood without its protections will continue to grow.
The authors thank MPI colleagues Colleen Putzel-Kavanaugh and Kathleen Bush-Joseph for their research assistance.
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